This original article was published in early 2022. It's just a fun thought experiment — it's probably not accurate or real, but it's a fun exploration.
atlantis
How likely was Atlantis?
I'll use IPCC words of estimation to break down the elements here...
Is it possible that 20k years ago...
- the Azores plateau was above current sea levels? Likely.
- someone created a boat to take humans from Africa/Europe to the Azores? Even chance.
- the massive ice melting would alter sea levels and redraw coastlines/islands? Very likely.
These variables have some prior evidence to point toward; however, let's look at elements of the myth (some original, some added later).
Possible that the people on the Azores...
- flourished 1-10k years before Plato? Even chance.
- had a metal like gold or copper? Even chance.
- had a strong military? Even chance.
- made statues with copper, gold, and silver? Even chance.
- made separate baths for royalty, and men and women? Even chance.
- had a beautiful land with mountains, rivers, lakes, and valleys? Very likely.
- formed a federation on their islands? Likely.
- had great lumber reserves? Likely.
- cultivated diverse plant life? Likely.
- enslaved people? Likely.
- built bridges? Unlikely.
- had elephants? Unlikely.
- made separate baths for animals? Unlikely.
- had a great navy? Unlikely.
- built stadium-sized temples? Unlikely.
- cut rings in the land to form islands? Unlikely.
- had densely populated cities? Very unlikely.
- built temples to Greek gods? Very unlikely.
- had electricity or other futuristic technology? Very unlikely.
- formed a global federation, ruling Libya, Europe, and Egypt? Very unlikely.
- had a massive army of 60k men, 10k chariots, and 1.2k ships? Very unlikely.
- were ruled by half-god kings? Exceptionally unlikely.
Why are many unlikely to exceptionally unlikely? There are little to no past priors of other civilizations harnessing future technology, creating great structures outside of Egypt, praising future civilizations' gods, or ever being even quarter-part gods (not even the pharaohs) at this period of history.
Why is it very unlikely Atlantis organized Earth's kingdoms and traded globally? There are no recorded stories or documents of Atlantis, and all details originate at one place: Plato (via his grandfather via Solon). Plato spoke of kingdoms known to the Greeks but left out the Americas and Asia. Stories passed as history, but originating from a single source, tend to be a myth.
What if Atlantis wasn't in the Atlantic?
Let's review the possibility that a lost civilization was located...
- in the Mediterranean? Likely.
- in the Atlantic at the Azores? Even chance.
- elsewhere in the Atlantic? Even chance.
- on the island known as Ireland? Very unlikely.
- in the North Sea? Unlikely.
- in the Caribbean? Even chance.
There is strong evidence of lost civilizations in the Aegean Sea, but there is declining evidence elsewhere. Plato speaks of Atlantis being in the Atlantic Ocean, and there is little evidence of ancient Egypt interacting with people from the Caribbean or Nordic lands. Evidence of past, basic civilization was found offshore in the North Sea. And to date, there's no evidence of ancient, lost civilizations on the island of Ireland.
What's the probability of Atlantis?
If all elements above are equal, with equal evidence of past priors, and we ignore things like the prior evidence of myths being fiction, or ever discovering one lost ancient civilization of any technological advancement... there's less than a 40% probability of a lost Atlantic civilization existing, and it's far from matching the details in the Atlantis myth.
It's more probable – like most "history" told from this period – that the myth of Atlantis was used for entertainment and education (through parables).
Is it fun to believe in lost advanced civilizations?
Yes.
Also available as a Twitter thread...
